Tuesday, January 03, 2017

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

NOAA - Propagation CIrcle
Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Jan 02 0408 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 December - 01 January 2017

Solar activity was at background levels through the period. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 26-31 Dec, dropping to normal to moderate levels late on 31 Dec - 01 Jan due to increased geomagnetic activity from the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels through the period. G1 conditions were observed early on 26 Dec as influence from a positive polarity CH HSS persisted from the previous reporting period. The CH HSS began to wane early on 27 Dec, causing a geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to active levels. As solar wind speeds continue their slow decline, quiet to unsettled conditions on 28 Dec gave way to quiet conditions on 29-30 Dec. Quiet to unsettled activity was once again observed beginning on 31 Dec as the onset of another positive polarity CH HSS was observed. Wind speeds increased from around 300 km/s to between 450-550 km/s as well as total magnetic field strength from around 5 nT to a peak of nearly 20 nT at 31/1636 UTC. Active conditions were observed early on 01 Jan as the CIR transitioned into the high-speed stream proper. As total magnetic field strength gradually trended towards 5 nT, geomagnetic activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 January - 28 January 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be high on 02-03 Jan, 05-13 Jan, and 18-27 Jan; moderate
electron flux is expected on 04 Jan, 14-17 Jan and 28 Jan. All increases in electron flux are anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 02 Jan, 08 Jan, 14 Jan and 23 Jan; active levels are expected on 03-04 Jan, 06-07 Jan, 20-22 Jan and 27-28 Jan; G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 05 Jan and 17-19 Jan. All elevated geomagnetic activity is anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to observe quiet conditions under an ambient solar wind environment.


Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Jan 02 0408 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-01-02
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Jan 02      73          10          3
2017 Jan 03      73          12          4
2017 Jan 04      73          18          4
2017 Jan 05      73          24          5
2017 Jan 06      73          22          4
2017 Jan 07      75          15          4
2017 Jan 08      75           8          3
2017 Jan 09      75           5          2
2017 Jan 10      75           5          2
2017 Jan 11      75           5          2
2017 Jan 12      76           5          2
2017 Jan 13      76           5          2
2017 Jan 14      76          10          3
2017 Jan 15      77           5          2
2017 Jan 16      77           5          2
2017 Jan 17      77          25          5
2017 Jan 18      77          20          5
2017 Jan 19      77          25          5
2017 Jan 20      75          18          4
2017 Jan 21      75          20          4
2017 Jan 22      75          20          4
2017 Jan 23      75          10          3
2017 Jan 24      75           5          2
2017 Jan 25      74           5          2
2017 Jan 26      74           5          2
2017 Jan 27      74          12          4
2017 Jan 28      73          15          4
(NOAA)